Mailbag: World beaters? Watch the Tigers

Verlander, Cabrera, others give Detroit good chance to reach World Series

Paul Battaglia / AP

Detroit Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander is on his way to winning the AL Cy Young Award this season.

ASK THE BASEBALL EXPERT

updated 3:13 p.m. ET Sept. 6, 2011

Tony DeMarco

Baseball Expert Tony DeMarco has been covering the big leagues since 1987, and been casting Hall of Fame ballots for the last 12 years. He answers questions weekly here:

Q: The Detroit Tigers are beginning to pull away in the AL Central. With Justin Verlander leading the way, do you think they have a legitimate chance to reach the World Series?
? Al Reynolds, Detroit

A: In a word, absolutely. The postseason is mostly about dominant pitching, and nobody has been more dominant this season than Verlander.

When you look back at postseason upsets, they often involved a starting pitcher or two carrying a team further than people thought possible. Two that immediately come to mind are the 2001 and 2003 World Series upsets of the Yankees pulled off by the Diamondbacks (Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson) and Marlins (Josh Beckett and Brad Penny).

The Tigers won't be favored in a first-round matchup with either the Red Sox or Yankees, but I like their chances in a best-of-five series with Verlander starting twice, presumably against either CC Sabathia or John Lester.

And if the Tigers happen to finish with a better record than the Rangers, they would play the wild-card team in the first round, and have a Game 5 at Comerica Park, if needed.

Also working in the Tigers' favor: They have arguably the league's best all-round hitter in Miguel Cabrera, and a high-quality closer in Jose Valverde, who's no Mariano Rivera, but then again, who is?

The Tigers fall short of the Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers in terms of runs scored, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, but not by large margins, and their lineup has deepened by the return of Victor Martinez and acquisition of Delmon Young.

The keys for Jim Leyland's team probably could be Max Scherzer and Doug Fister behind Verlander in the rotation, and how effective Joaquin Benoit will be, as well as if the first-half version of Al Albuquerque returns.

Interestingly, Detroit matches up pretty well against New York (4-3 in the season series), but not so much against Boston (1-5, and outscored 13-31).

Scherzer, who is dominant against right-handed hitters but far more vulnerable against lefties, made one disastrous start against Boston (2 IP, 7 ER), but has a 4.15 ERA in two starts against New York. Fister has pitched well against all three potential AL playoff opponents.

The thing to keep in mind about both the Yankees and Red Sox is that neither has a deep rotation. There are no certainties behind Sabathia in the Yankees' rotation ? no Andy Pettitte anymore ? and injuries to Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka have left the Red Sox a bit vulnerable, with Erik Bedard and John Lackey behind Lester and Beckett, who left his last start with an ankle injury.

So the opportunity certainly is there for both the Tigers and Rangers.

Q: One of these days, a player is going to get seriously hurt or even killed by an intentional bean ball. When it happens, my guess is the mother of all baseball lawsuits will occur. Do you think baseball should tighten up its rules and increase punishment for these incidents?

? Bolivar Joseph Atanasio, Northridge, Calif.

A: The rules are quite clear, and I believe they are enforced more than they used to be 20-25 years ago.

Back then, far less was made of hit-by-pitch incidents. The idea was that the policing was done on the field: You hit our best player, we hit yours. As long as neither hit was anywhere near the head, and down near the backside, that was the end of it.

Things operate pretty much the same way these days, and I'll never believe that a pitcher intentionally throws at an opposing batter's head. But with more hitters crowding the plate and/or trying to cover the outer half of the plate and take the ball the other way, pitchers are trying to pitch inside more often to counteract. And I believe that's part of the reason why you see more pitches come up-and-in to hitters ? and tempers flaring over the pitchers' perceived intent.

But to your point, I believe MLB could stiffen the penalties. A starting pitcher usually gets a five-game suspension for such an incident, which is nothing more than giving him one more day between starts. That's not a big enough deterrent; a 10-game suspension would be.

It will be interesting to see what Joe Torre ? MLB's new czar on these matters ? does in this area as he settles into his role.

Q: Do playoff saves count in a pitchers' total on the all-time list, or is it just for the regular season?
? Charlie Markert, Downsville, N.Y.

A: Postseason statistics do not count toward all-time totals. The idea is to keep the measuring stick the same for everybody by only counting regular-season games.

But if postseason statistics did count toward all-time totals, just to name a few: Mariano Rivera would have 42 more saves, Derek Jeter would have 185 more hits, Babe Ruth would have finished with 729 homers (714 + 15 in the postseason), and Pete Rose's hit total would be 4,342 hits (4,256 + 86 in the postseason).

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Source: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/44411248/ns/sports-baseball/

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